Snow joke - another bitterly cold winter could be on the way
The Westcountry can expect the same bitter winter and snowstorms as last year, according to a forecaster who claims to have accurately predicted 2009's big freeze.
Last year's winter was the coldest in 31 years across the region, with the lowest temperature of -16.0C recorded at Yeovilton on January 7.
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The mean temperature for Devon was 3.33C, for Cornwall the figure was 4.4C, and in Somerset it was just 2.96C.
The maximum official snow depth was 11cm recorded at Dunkeswell on January 11, but for many it would have seemed far greater due to drifting.
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This winter, Jonathan Powell of Positive Weather Solutions (PWS) said the Westcountry should prepare itself for "more of the same".
He said: "It is very unusual to have two very harsh winters back-to-back, so most people would have expected a tamer and milder winter this year.
"But whatever the South West experienced last year, you can expect this year, although not perhaps to such extremes.
"We expect periods of disruptive snowfall similar to the snow we saw last winter, although periods of harsh weather will be broken up by milder conditions.
"And with a combination of snow, ice and bitterly-cold temperatures, we could well see another 'white-out' scenario as some areas of the country grind to a halt."
According to its website, PWS bases its forecasts on "a central computer program which searches a partitioned slice of historical data, looking for patterns and trends within it".
The UK's national weather service, the Met Office, no longer delivers long-term forecasts after it was criticised last year for predicting "odds on for a barbecue summer" and only a one-in-seven chance of a cold winter.
They now limit their public predictions to 30 days. PWS, which claims to have correctly forecast the 2009 washout summer and last winter's plunging temperatures, has continued to offer long-range forecasts.
But they are not always right. In mid-July, the group predicted: "August for all of the UK will be dry and warm." The month turned out to be dull, wet and the coolest since 1993.
The Met Office has vastly greater computational power than small-scale outfits, access to more data and more highly-trained meteorologists. Even with those facilities, however, it is still very difficult to predict the UK's weather because of its size and position in temperature latitudes, sandwiched between the Atlantic and Europe.
Comments
by Lucy, Par,Cornwall
Wednesday, October 06 2010, 9:11AM
“Fingers crossed for a cold snowy spell this winter,the kids thought it was brilliant to get a few days off school to build snowmen :-)”
by Jules, Falmouth
Tuesday, October 05 2010, 6:31PM
“Let's hope that if the predictions are correct, that the council will get enough grit this time!”
by Gazz, Truro
Tuesday, October 05 2010, 4:26PM
“Cant wait!! I think our 1st cold snap will be mid Nov then a breif mild spell before cold again start of Dec. Built a lovely snowman last year and it was nice to walk up morlaix avenue through Truro with no traffic just the sound of crunching snow under foot.”
by David, St Austell
Tuesday, October 05 2010, 3:13PM
“Sadly 2,500 people are killed on our roads every year. A great many of these are due to motorists not driving according to the conditions. Whether it's torrential rain, thick mist or snow to some the speed limit is for other people. Unfortunately these other people have to pick up the pieces of their reckless driving. Snow is not as dangerous as the nut behind the wheel.”
by JAM1989, cornwall
Tuesday, October 05 2010, 2:09PM
“haha yes this this is true PZlad.
If it snows and is dangerous to drive people she just stay at home and not made to feel pressured into going to work, at the end of the day its only work and I certainly wont risk it if i feel that i am not capable of driving in the snow. we should just enjoy it and get out and build some snow men!! :-)”
by PZlad, PZ
Tuesday, October 05 2010, 12:20PM
“Debe. The people driving sub 5mph are out there all year round. Their called the over 80s”
by Debe, Liskeard
Tuesday, October 05 2010, 11:46AM
“The money I would spend on winter tyres doesn¿t make up for the couple of days I might miss off work.
I might drive carefully, as many people try to do in those conditions, but when i did venture out earlier this year some people acted as if they¿ed had a lobotomy as soon as a snowflake hit their windscreen, driving over the speed limit on icy roads and sliding everywhere, or in one case at sub 5mph speeds causing everyone to have to attempt to overtake them or be stuck behind.
Rather stay warm indoors and leave em too it thanks.”
by cheekyman, Redruth
Tuesday, October 05 2010, 10:50AM
“Another good piece of advice is "stop driving so fast and pay attention to the signs" when it's snowing. During the last snowfall I was driving on the A30 at a steady 50...a car zoomed past me in the outside lane, then lost control and continued going faster than me whilst spinning until it eventually stopped.
In all fairness, what do people expect to happen when they drive on roads not used to snowfall so irresponsibly? We're all adults, if you can't control your car you should probably consider not driving...”
by Mike Hunt, St Awfull
Tuesday, October 05 2010, 10:26AM
“Here's a tip, buy some winter tyres now, stick them on in early December and take them off in March and you can drive around no problems at all. Thats what everyone does (by law) where i work in Norway.
The last time it snowed in the UK I had to go back to norway where they had 10 times more snow just to get a normal life again.”