A double threat of climate change and coping with an ageing population could see the Westcountry’s health and care services strained to breaking point, a new report has warned.

Researchers have mapped out the areas of the UK which are likely to be blasted by extreme weather, such as heatwaves and floods, in the next few decades.

They have then superimposed projections of where the nation’s older generations will be living and found a worrying overlap which could mean many thousands of people are at risk, particularly in the South West.

Report author Dr Dimitry Val said it was clear many areas predicted to see an increase in extreme weather events may also need to care for a high proportion of over-65s as England’s population lives longer.

The South West, where older people will make up an estimated 30-40 per cent of the population by the 2030s, will be most vulnerable from heatwaves, to which the elderly are particularly susceptible.

Dr Val, of Heriot-Watt University in Edinburgh, said it was vital to make plans now to prevent services from being overwhelmed.

“The combination of extreme weather coupled with increasing numbers of older people living in the UK is likely to increase the risks for infrastructure, including hospitals and health centres.”

He added that, on the heels of two severe winters, “the problems faced by the elderly have been particularly acute, especially in rural areas”.

Co-author Professor Sarah Curtis said many rural or semi-rural parts of England were likely to see a rapid growth in elderly residents and will have to plan for how they are going to provide the services older people need in the face of a changing climate.

Coastal areas, which will be at a higher risk of flooding by the 2050s, are also likely to have among the greatest proportion of older people.

Professor Curtis, of Durham University’s department of geography, said it was vital to plan for both eventualities.

“Planning ahead for the growth in the older population, we need to think about the health and social care they will need, and making sure health and social care services are able to function in hot and cold weather. We’re interested in weather extremes and related things like floods.

“The growth in the older population is most evident in areas outside the major cities, and quite a lot of areas are around the coastline of England.”

The report, published in the journal Applied Geography, says that, while cold snaps will become less common, they will continue to pose a serious threat to older people – and people may be less able to cope with them.

The researchers warn planners will need to keep road networks, hospitals, care homes and utilities, including electricity and water, functioning in the midst of extreme weather events to ensure they can provide services older people need.

Joe McKenna, chairman of the campaign group Health Initiative Cornwall, said the NHS must heed the warning.

“We have been calling for a healthcare review which will look at how services are provided in the next 20 years,” he said. “It would highlight that we have not been given enough funds to meet specific needs now, let alone in the future.”

Alison Hawes, South West regional director of the Countryside Alliance, said it proved that more resources should be ploughed into ensuring older people living in rural areas were cared for.

“Issues such as fuel prices and access to services are already huge challenges to people in the South West.

“These challenges are only going to become more acute as the population ages and weather patterns change.

“It is crucial that councils, local government authorities and groups such as the Environment Agency work with rural communities to plan for the future, so that bad weather impact is minimised, energy costs are manageable and services and transport infrastructure are accessible for all.

“What we don’t want to see is the surprise and panic of previous years where everyone was ill-prepared to cope with the harsh winter. Planning is all, and if we expect the worst we can minimise the impact on our rural communities, people and economies.”

Armand Toms, portfolio holder for Adult Care and Support at Cornwall Council, said the authority was well aware of the challenges ahead.

“We know how much the weather has changed in the last few years because we have had to deal with things like the flooding at Boscastle and just last year the flooding down at St Blazey, Lostwithiel and Mevagissey. You only need to look back at the last week and the warm temperatures we have seen in October to see that things are changing.”

Mr Tom said the council was looking ahead: “We are very aware of the need to plan and there are already systems in place to do that.”