After the freeze, a warmer year awaits

THE Westcountry has endured sub-zero temperatures over the first few days and nights of the New Year – but forecasters predict 2009 could be one of the warmest years on record.

Exeter started New Year's Eve with a knee-knocking minus 5.1C at 6am and last night, temperatures in the city were expected to be minus 4C.

Despite the cold, the Westcountry is expected to have higher temperatures than other parts of the country this weekend. While Barnstaple shivers today with 2C, Plymouth is expected to see a slightly more bearable 3C while the people of Newquay will enjoy slightly warmer temperatures of up to 5C by 3pm.

A Met Office spokesman said: "There is a likelihood that the further east you go in the region, temperatures are likely to get colder, but then there are 200 miles between the most easterly points and Land's End.

"The difference in temperature is simply due to the fact that the further west you go, the more benefit you gain from the warm air off the Atlantic. It really is that simple."

Tomorrow's weather will see a slight increase in temperatures. But again, the further west you are, the more bearable it will be. Newquay will experience 6C, dropping in Plymouth to 5C, but it will be significantly colder in Exeter at just 3C.

But experts are predicting 2009 will be one of the five warmest years on record.

Despite 2008 being largely a washout for the Westcountry, the Met Office believes this year will kick-start a further rise in global temperatures because the continued cooling of huge areas of the tropical Pacific Ocean, a phenomenon known as La Nina, will be less strong than in the last three years.

According to climate scientists at the Met Office and the University of East Anglia, the global temperature is forecast to be more than 0.4C above the long-term average. This would make 2009 warmer than the year just gone and the warmest since 2005.

Professor Chris Folland, of the Met Office's Hadley Centre said: "Phenomena such as El Nino and La Nina have a significant influence on global surface temperature. Warmer conditions in 2009 are expected because the strong cooling influence of the recent powerful La Nina has given way to a weaker La Nina. Further warming to record levels is likely once a moderate El Nino develops."

During La Nina, cold waters rise to the surface to cool the ocean and land surface temperatures. The 2009 forecast indicates a rapid return of global temperature to the long-term warming trend.

Professor Phil Jones, director of the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, said: "The fact that 2009, like 2008, will not break records does not mean that global warming has gone away."